Cryptocurrency Exchange OKEx to Launch Options Trading This Month


Malta-based cryptocurrency exchange OKEx announced that it will launch crypto options trading on Dec. 27.

In a press release on Dec. 9, the exchange said that the addition of options makes OKEx the “first crypto exchange to offer C2C, spot, futures, perpetual swap, and options trading under the same roof.” 

The options will allow the platform’s users to buy or sell an underlying asset after paying a premium. While real options trading will begin on Dec. 27, simulated trading is scheduled to start in just three days, on Dec. 12.

A major upgrade for OKEx

To implement options, the firm reportedly upgraded its entire system and infrastructure, including the addition of an anti-price manipulation system.

The option price is determined in real-time by employing the Black-Scholes pricing model, which considers volatility, option type, underlying asset price, time, strike price and risk-free rate. OKEx CEO Jay Hao commented:

“Options is a unique instrument that enable traders to manage, price and hedge the volatility of crypto assets with a combination of option contracts. It also gives a trader the ability to take advantage of more than just market direction. As the crypto market evolves, we aim to build a complete derivatives product suite, delivering solutions to optimize users’ trading strategies.”
Users wanting to access OKEx’s options trading service must first undergo Know Your Customer procedures and pass a suitability test proving that they understand the products they are buying.

The competition in the cryptocurrency derivatives space is seeing an ever-growing number of products being announced and released. In one of the latest examples, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group announced that it expects to launch options on its Bitcoin futures on Jan. 13, 2020.





Cointelegraph News

Gov’t Seeks to Tax Crypto Transactions as Capital Gains


The South Korean government plans to tax capital gains on cryptocurrency transactions. A Dec. 9 report from The Korea Times reveals that a revised bill to introduce the measure will be drawn up by the country’s Ministry of Economy and Finance by the first half of 2020.

In parallel, the Korean National Assembly is in the process of advancing a related bill aimed at increasing transparency in cryptocurrency trading. If passed, the new regulations would come into effect one year after the Assembly’s plenary session.

While the government’s capital gains bill will reportedly go ahead regardless of related legislation, The Korea Times notes that a more adequate definition of cryptocurrencies and digital assets will be required to provide clarity for the government’s interventions. 

Among the matters to be clarified is the question of whether crypto-related gains are to be deemed similar to gains in stock trading or real estate transactions.

To implement its taxation plans, the government could therefore need to obtain access to trading records on cryptocurrency exchanges — a practice already underway in countries such as the United States.

Anti-Money Laundering measures

As Cointelegraph reported, South Korea’s proposed Act on Reporting and Use of Certain Financial Transaction Information will, if passed, stipulate that banks must issue real-name accounts to crypto exchanges. This would ensure that crypto exchanges adhere to the same Know Your Customer and Anti-Money Laundering standards as traditional financial institutions. 

This move to bring cryptocurrency exchanges under the direct regulation of the country’s watchdog, the Financial Services Commission, will also include introducing a crypto exchange licensing system, as recommended by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Major South Korean exchange Upbit, which is run by a subsidiary of Korean tech giant Kakao, revealed last month that 342,000 Ether (ETH) had been stolen from its hot wallets. 

The thefts happened when the exchange was allegedly moving assets between its hot and cold storage facilities, sparking some speculation that the incident may have been an inside job, rather than an external breach. Upbit has pledged to reimburse those affected from its corporate funds. 

Transfers of the ill-gotten assets have since been detected on the Ethereum blockchain.





Source Cointelegraph

No More Bitcoin for Nordea Bank Employees, Experts Question the Motive


An act of paternalism or a case of generic Bitcoin (BTC) distrust? It is hard to make out the exact reasons for Nordea Bank’s ban on its 31,500 employees trading in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies — even on their own time — a prohibition that was upheld on Dec. 2 by a Danish court.

In a press release posted by the court following its ruling, Nordea Bank noted that, “Employees are permitted to keep any existing [crypto] holdings,” though it added that they were encouraged to sell them.

As reported by Cointelegraph, Denmark’s finance industry union, Finansforbundet, brought a class-action lawsuit against Nordea’s cryptocurrency prohibition in 2018 on the grounds that the ban interfered with employees’ personal lives. It appears that the bank, the largest financial group in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), was worried that its employees might unwittingly get mixed up with some unethical or even criminal activities. As a spokesperson for Nordea Bank told Cointelegraph after the Copenhagen labor court’s decision:

“The market for crypto-currencies is unregulated and not transparent. It makes it hard to monitor where the money comes from. It increases the risk that investors, including our employees, may unwillingly get involved in activities that are unethical or outright illegal.”

He added that, “We are satisfied that the court ruled in our favour.” In the aftermath of the decision, however, others accused the bank of overreach. Jacob Pouncey, treasurer of the Nordic Blockchain Association, told Cointelegraph:

“It [the decision] is allowing a corporation to impede the private lives of its employees. It is infringing upon the personal freedoms of its employees.”

The bank’s prerogative?

In one sense, there is nothing out of the ordinary in Nordea’s prohibition. Some crypto exchanges have prohibited crypto purchases among employees, and specialized personnel within larger financial organizations, like commodities traders, are often subject to restrictions on their personal assets.

Crypto startup Seed CX, for instance, advertised on its website that it allows: “No personal cryptocurrency trading by employees.” Jeremy E. Deutsch, an attorney from Anderson Kill, told Cointelegraph he doesn’t necessarily see a legal problem with the Bitcoin-trading prohibition, “Clearly banks have the ability to regulate the securities trading of their own employees, and to have all things in place to ensure that they’re not engaging in insider trading.” What’s unusual here, though, is the breadth of the ban. Deutsch said:

“They’ve banned an entire asset class. It’s not like they’re saying, ‘You can’t trade in Amerian Express because we’re doing work for them.’ What they’re saying, rather, is: ‘You can’t own gold. You can’t own oil.’ It doesn’t make sense.”

This sort of prohibition is unique, in the view of Michael Reuter, co-chairman of the Germany-based European Blockchain Association e.V, who told Cointelegraph, “It is highly unusual that a private bank prohibits trading of crypto currencies for all its [31,000-plus] employees. From our experience this could be the first time, ever.”

Nor is this asset class (crypto) so different from more traditional asset classes in terms of risk adjusted returns as measured by Sharpe ratios, added Deutsch. “What exactly is one protecting employees from?” he asked rhetorically. The Danish court’s press release sought to answer the question “Why is Nordea doing this?” with the bank’s own prior statements:

“Investments in cryptocurrency have been restricted due to the unregulated nature of these assets which are not subject to investor protection regulations or authority supervision and related risks including volatility and liquidity risk as well as financial crime risks, e.g. that proceeds that employees might obtain from selling bitcoins derive from criminal activities.”

“The problem with Bitcoins is indeed that they may be used for criminal activities and tax evasion,” Daniël Cuypers, a labor law expert at Belgium’s University of Antwerp, told Cointelegraph. In some cases, the victim may turn to the bank to hold them liable for the acts of their employees.

Related: Criminal Activity in Crypto: The Fact, the Fiction and the Context

But what if the cryptocurrency is purchased outside the job, on the employee’s own time. How does that impact the bank? Cuypers answered:

“This should have no effect on the job. However, it may be that private activities do have negative consequences for the job. It is the impact on the job that matters, e.g., if a bank employee is arrested for financial fraud in private matters it may have a negative impact on the confidence of the [bank’s] clients.”

Nordea argued that its employees “may unwillingly get involved in activities that are unethical or outright illegal activities” if allowed to purchase cryptocurrency on their own time. What’s wrong with that? In Pouncey’s opinion, “Sure the bank has a point, but why not ban any other activity that could lead to unethical or downright illegal activity, such as buying fur coats, drinking, gambling, and other vices.”

Reuter from the European Blockchain Association challenged the notion — presumed by Nordea and held by many others as well — that Bitcoin is an effective means of payment for criminal activities:

“Because Bitcoin is not an anonymous, but a pseudonymous crypto asset, it would be unwise to use it for criminal activities. From the perspective of a criminal: he or she can easily be traced back. In principal, this argument seems to reflect a generic distrust of Bitcoin rather than a comprehensible counter-argument.”

Hostile to crypto?

There is some history here. According to Compliance Week, Nordea Group changed its strategic focus in 2014 from the Baltic states to the Nordic states “in part over concerns it was being used by its international branch customers to launder dirty money.” It had reportedly been under investigation for three years for handling illicit funds tied to Russian criminals.

In June, Nordea Bank Danmark A/S announced that its offices had been raided by Danish prosecutors under suspicion of money laundering. The bank reportedly set aside more than $106 million to cover money laundering probes. Last week, some in the crypto community seemed to feel that Nordea’s employees were paying for the bank’s transgressions. As Pouncey told Cointelegraph:

“Nordea has been connected to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of suspicious money flows. Would you say any employee working at the bank is directly or indirectly engaging in unethical or outright illegal activities simply by doing their daily task that keeps the bank running? The bank should focus on policing its own unethical or outright illegal activities first, then focus on its employees’ actions outside of work.”

An analyst that goes by the name “Rhythm” had this comment on Twitter in the wake of the court ruling on Dec. 2, “They told their staff that ‘the risks were too high.’ This is coming from the same bank that was raided by police for allegedly laundering $793 million of Russian money.”

“The crypto industry is lurching slowly toward greater regulation, oversight and transparency,” Deutsch told Cointelegraph, so for the bank to argue that it needed to protect its employees and protect itself against an unregulated, opaque market doesn’t really hold water (though that claim might have had merit three years ago, he allowed).

Deutsch added, “They are within their rights, but to prohibit every single employee from trading cryptocurrencies — including the janitors and people who work in the cafeteria — seems weird.” Pouncey told Cointelegraph that the bank may have gone too far:

“Owning crypto is not illegal in Denmark, nor is purchasing it. Yet because I work at a bank that has been suspected of laundering millions annually, I am unable to purchase cryptocurrencies despite studies showing that only a small volume of crypto transactions are actually for illicit purposes.”

The Danish court’s decision will likely be appealed, Pouncey said. This ban is impossible to enforce — a Nordea employee could buy crypto with cash or from an account outside of Nordea field of vision — “however, it will deter people,” he said. Nordea clearly overreacted, in the view of Reuter:

“Cryptoassets are in most cases unregulated assets that should be addressed in the same way as other unregulated assets. That said, we don‘t regard this decision as a watershed event in the way that more or many banks will follow.”

Overall, a benevolent reading of Nordea’s controversial Bitcoin prohibition is that it is a bit clumsy and paternalistic — protecting its employees from themselves, as it were. The darker view is the bank is using crypto as a scapegoat for its legal transgressions.





Cointelegraph News

Sorry — But Bitcoin Can Still Drop to $2.7K While Everyone’s Bullish


As the Bitcoin price (BTC) begins to slowly ascend, the question on everyone’s minds is whether the latest bottom is in, or whether there is more pain ahead.  

In this article, I will aim to provide some insight as to what one can expect based on the information from the charts. 

Daily crypto market performance

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

Lower CME gap to be filled

BITCOIN CME futures daily chart

BITCOIN CME futures daily chart. Source: TradingView

In last week’s analysis, I pointed out that the CME gap was higher than the weekend price, 7% higher in fact, and as expected this gap was filled on Dec. 4 as a $560 candle appeared out of nowhere taking the price from around $7,240 to $7,800 in a matter of minutes.

One thing that is worth noting here is that although the Bitcoin price experienced this explosive move, the price was only maintained for a few hours, before returning to its previous level. With this in mind, let’s consider the gap that needs to be filled this forthcoming week.  

The Bitcoin price closed on the CME Futures charts at $7,495, and at the time of writing this Sunday evening, Bitcoin is trading at around $7,514. With barely any difference in the price this week, the CME gap filling will not be something so easy to spot unless, of course, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise.  

If Bitcoin gains $200-$300 or higher throughout the week, those in longs should keep an eye on $7,495 to avoid any unpleasant repercussions. But what else could be in store this week?

The Daily MACD crossed bullish for the first time in a month

BTC USD MACD daily chart

BTC USD MACD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Again, looking at last week’s outlook, the moving average divergence convergence (MACD) indicator looked poised for a bullish cross. As can be seen from the chart above, the cross occurred marking the end of the current bearish trend that the digital asset had been experiencing since the MACD crossed bearishly on Nov. 9.

Whilst the MACD cannot give an expected duration for the next bullish phase, it is at least moving in a northbound direction for the time being. What one would hope to see next is this being replicated on higher time frames as it is the weekly MACD that spells elation or doom.

The weekly MACD is still bearish

BTC USD MACD Weekly chart

BTC USD MACD Weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly MACD is quite possibly the best indicator one can use when attempting to time when to buy and sell Bitcoin. Since October 2016, there have been just 8 crosses. Four bullish and four bearish, and we are currently awaiting a bullish cross.  

What concerns me about the current pattern on the MACD is that it currently mimics that of the same pattern around April/May 2018, a period that many may recall was full of crypto twitter experts calling the bottom.  

However, what happened next was 10 more months of a bearish trend. So is Bitcoin going to experience this yet again so soon? What about the miners? What about the halving? What about the stock-to-flow ratio that people are ramming down our throats as just cause for another bull run? 

Well, I decided to see if any other indicators correlate, and it turns out, they do.

Weekly RSI is almost identical to the middle of the last bear market

BTC USD RSI weekly chart

BTC USD RSI weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly RSI is also now showing the same pattern as it did around April/May 2018. Should the same pattern continue, the bottom falls around May 2020. 

This is quite interesting, considering the mining reward halving falls at the same time; and historically the price of Bitcoin typically increases after, not before the event.  

Thus, for now, there could still be validity in the stock-to-flow ratio argument as well as the mining reward halving impact. But how much did the Bitcoin price fall during this last phase? Can that give us an indication as to what price the bottom could be? 

Previous price action

BTC USD Price

BTC USD Price: Coinmarketcap

During the first 2 weeks of May 2018, BTC price ranged between $8,800 and $9,900. This would average out at around $9,500. The bottom of this bear cycle was on Feb. 8, 2019, at a price of $3,391.

That represented a further 64% downside, which if applied to today’s Bitcoin price of $7,514 would put the bottom around $2,705 by May 2020.  

However, history has no real reason to repeat itself. Yet for some reason, it does tend to rhyme, so perhaps the next few months are only going to get worse for the digital asset.

Is there a bullish scenario?

BTC USD weekly chart

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Last week provided lots of opportunities for Bitcoin to begin to approach the $10,000 range once more. But sadly, after the CME gap was filled, the price failed to hold up. As such, Bitcoin needs to maintain its price above $6,900 which is shown as support on the weekly Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator to have any hope of regaining some of its value.

Should the BTC/USD increase throughout the week, the resistance I see as key for the bulls is around $9,200, which could then flip the Bitcoin market bullish.

Bearish scenario

I don’t think I need to repeat the bearish scenario. The $6,900 level must be defended. Should this price breakdown, I expect an aggressive sell-off to lows around the $2,700 region over the next 5-6 months.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.





Cointelegraph News

Bitcoin Halving, Explained | Cointelegraph


Historically, the price has gone up following a halving, but it ultimately depends on the supply/demand ratio.

Essentially, Bitcoin halving cuts down the supply of BTC, making the asset more scarce. If the demand is there, the price is likely to increase. There are also some historical precedents. On Nov. 28, 2012, the day of Bitcoin’s first halving, the cpryptocurrency’s price rose from $11 to $12, and continued to climb up throughout the next year, reaching $1038 on Nov. 28, 2013.

Roughly four years later, a month before the second halving, Bitcoin’s price started to follow a similar, bullish pattern. It surged from $576 on June 9 to $650 on July 9, 2016 — the day the block’s reward was reduced by half for the second time in the asset’s history. Again, BTC continued to accelerate through the next year, albeit with occasional turbulence, and traded at $2526 on 9 July 2017.

Will it be the same next time? Skeptics believe that the halving has already been priced in (remember this year’s epic, but short-lived systematic price increase?). Although, there is no scientific way to verify this. 

Moreover, the industry has drastically changed over the last four years, as cryptocurrencies — and Bitcoin in particular — became an essential part of mainstream news coverage. Still, some people might be tempted to take the chance, especially given the previous patterns exhibited around Bitcoin halvings. 

Consequently, if history repeats itself and the Bitcoin price starts going up in April 2020, even more traders might start buying the asset out of a fear of missing out, thus stimulating the demand, and, ultimately, the price.





Cointelegraph News

Death Spirals and BTC — What Happens When Miners Capitulate?


The stagnation of the cryptocurrency market has put Bitcoin’s (BTC) price at risk of further decline, as it struggles to recover beyond key resistance levels. A descending price increases the probability of the so-called “miner capitulation” occuring, which is said to have triggered the major BTC drop in December 2018.

Late last year, the Bitcoin price fell to around $6,000 following three months of stability in a tight range between $6,000 and $6,500. The subsequent drop to the $3,000s happened within the span of just one month.

Why miner capitulation occurs?

Miner capitulation occurs in the Bitcoin market when mining is no longer profitable. As profitability drops, miners naturally sell their Bitcoin holdings, capitulating as a response to worsening market sentiment. If miners begin to sell off, it creates significant selling pressure in the market. Such pressure creates a difficult environment for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to maintain their momentum.

Large mining centers and companies are unlikely to capitulate due to a short-term price slump, as they hold long-term contracts with electricity providers. They also have more capital to deal with instability in the market for an extended time period.

Meanwhile, short-term capitulation among smaller mining companies is likely. Major mining firms closing down one after another could lead to a death spiral in which the Bitcoin network’s hash rate drops to near-zero.

However, as security and cryptocurrency researcher Andreas Antonpoulos previously said, a death spiral or an abrupt drop in the hash rate of the Bitcoin network to near-zero is not likely to happen because miners operate with long-term perspective and strategy. He explained, “Part of the reason that’s unlikely to happen is that miners have a much more long-term perspective.”

Hence, when short-term miner capitulation occurs — similar to late 2018 — the market tends to recover in six months to a year. Currently, it is still premature to predict whether miner capitulation will occur heading into the year’s end. However, if negative sentiment around the market is carried onto the first quarter of 2020, a December 2018-esque capitulation could occur in the upcoming months.

Bearish targets for Bitcoin

Prior to last week, when the Bitcoin price was clearly in an intense downtrend following a brief spike to $10,600 on Oct. 26, many technical analysts predicted a further drop to the $5,000 to $6,000 region.

Crypto trader Eric Thies, for instance, said last week that a key bearish indicator lit up, noting that Bitcoin is due for a deep pullback in the near future. Subsequent to an awkward price action for over two weeks, during which Bitcoin demonstrated extreme volatility, Thies said that BTC could be setting up for a recovery after tweeting on Dec. 1 that the outlook was not great. The analyst emphasized that the current structure is “potentially significant for bulls,” not dismissing the scenario of BTC rebounding strongly to higher resistance levels.

DonAlt, a cryptocurrency trader, said that while it is too early to state that Bitcoin is on track for a full recovery, it would have to reclaim higher time frame levels to engage in any meaningful upside movement.

Higher time frame resistance levels for Bitcoin sit between $7,600 and $8,500, and according to DonAlt, BTC passing those levels in the short-term would indicate a bullish movement. He said, “Now that heads have cooled off, the bullishness has quickly faded. So far, this is a bearish retracement after a huge impulse down.”

Big mining companies are having a difficult time

The break-even price of Bitcoin mining is estimated at around $4,100 to $4,500. According to Miner Hut8, a publicly listed mining giant based in Canada, the firm has mined Bitcoin at a cost of $4,300 throughout the third quarter. The company stated:

“Revenue of $26.7 million; Mining Profit Margin of 58%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $14.7 million. Mined 1,965 Bitcoin at a Cost per Bitcoin of US$4,363 inclusive of electricity costs, mining pool fees, and all other production costs.”

However, cryptocurrency researcher Ceteris Paribus noted that the cost of mining calculated by Miner Hut8 “leaves out depreciation, expenses, and net finance expenses,” which could place the actual cost of mining at $7,100. The researcher added:

“Short-term if the price goes under $7.1k they will keep mining as this is still > operational costs & mining equipment is a sunk cost. But long-term you can’t imply that they are profitable <$5k. They will need to replace equipment, continue paying employees, financing costs, etc.”

The decline in Bitcoin’s price and the increase in mining difficulty has had a negative effect on the mining profit margins of Hut8 as well as other major mining firms. Due to their large Bitcoin holdings and cash reserves, large mining facilities are not at imminent risk of having to reduce their operations to cope with a declining Bitcoin price.

Still, the tough ecosystem developing before miners could take a toll on smaller firms, especially if BTC falls to the $6,000s, a price range that is below the break-even point for most producers.

Halving won’t have an immediate effect

One of the most highly anticipated events of 2020 is the block reward halving of Bitcoin in May. The mechanism, which gets triggered once every four years, would effectively drop the compensation miners receive for mining blocks that contain BTC transactions by half. It also decreases the rate of new BTC production as the network approaches its fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoins.

Since 2018, the halving has been talked about as the next driving factor of an extended Bitcoin rally. As a scarce asset, any event that decreases the supply of the cryptocurrency would theoretically impact its price trend. However, high profile investors have said that the halving is not likely to have any immediate effect on the Bitcoin price.

Related: BTC Miners: No More Basement Rigs, Greater Profits to Come

If the halving occurs without imposing a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin, it would place additional pressure on miners to adopt better infrastructure and efficient equipment to try to further decrease the costs.

Throughout history, the halving has not led to a large rally for Bitcoin until a year or two after the event, possibly because it is priced in well before the event occurs. As such, it is possible that the capitulation of small miners lead to BTC testing lower level supports in the $5,000 to $6,000 region despite being down substantially since mid-2019, creating negative sentiment around the cryptocurrency market in early 2020.

The current price trend of Bitcoin

Based on fundamentals, Bitcoin remains strong in various key areas including user activity, transaction value denominated in dollars, and hash rate. Official on-chain data from Blockchain.com shows that the number of unique addresses used has increased from 310,000 in January 2019 to nearly 500,000 in less than 12 months. The hash rate has also increased, from 41 exahash in January to 92 exahash, more than doubling in the same period.

Bitcoin network hash rate in tera hashes per second (trillions of hashes per second) source: blockchain.com

Bitcoin network hash rate. Source: blockchain.com

Due to the fundamentals, Bitcoin investor Timothy Petersen said that the “2019 bubble” of Bitcoin is likely to burst in about two weeks, marking a potential local bottom by year-end. Hence, if BTC begins to demonstrate an intense sell-off in the weeks to come, the most probable cause of the drop would be capitulation by smaller mining firms. Mining capitulation is also seen as a positive point for medium to long-term recovery by many investors, as it often marks the end of a bear market and the start of an accumulation phase.





Cointelegraph News

Bitcoin Price Must Now Break $8.2K to End 6-Month Losing Streak


While Bitcoin (BTC) is in a range between $6,800-$8,200, some altcoins have shown impressive movements during the past week. Some examples are MATIC (+83%) and RVN (+46%). These movements generally occur during low volatility periods in Bitcoin. 

Crypto market daily performance

Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360

Now that Bitcoin is attempting to rally above $7,600, into its previous trading range, new analysis and perspectives are needed in order to see if the market can provide continued upside movement for altcoins. 

Bitcoin stuck in a bearish range

Bitcoin’s trend still favors the downside as is shown in the 12-hour chart below.

BTC USD 12-hour chart

BTC USD 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The trend is still down where lower highs and lower lows are created. However, the price temporarily found a bottom at $6,500-$6,800. Since that bottom formation, a range is defined between $6,800 and $7,800, in which the $7,800 area is the upper resistance zone.

Another indicator providing range-bound confirmations is the decrease of volume within such a range. During the dropdown from $8,400 to $6,500 the price started to accelerate, which caused the volume to increase. However, the moment the price is inside a range, volume usually decreases and goes away. The consequence is that the weird “Bart Simpson” pattern happens and liquidation hunts occur. 

Why? The volume is overall lower, which also means that order books are thin. This results in more effortless stop hunt movements as the required volume to execute such a move is much lower. 

Support spotted on the 4-hour chart

BTC USD 4-hour chart

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart is showing the same range levels. The price couldn’t clear the $7,800 resistance, through which the price retraced towards the green area around $7,000 for a support test. 

This confirmed support (including bullish divergences on smaller time frames), and the price moved back up towards the upper parts of the range in the $7,800 area. 

The $7,400 level is most important for now as this is a healthy horizontal level where the price needs to hold to justify a continued trend upwards. 

Falling wedge bottom construction

BTC USD 2-hour chart

BTC USD 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 2-hour chart shows a falling wedge construction, which led to the breakout to $7,800. However, the same day the price retraced back towards the previous support area in which the green zone once again confirmed the support area. 

Then, a natural slow gain towards the $7,400 area occurred, and now the price finally broke through this level upwards (as is recognized by the arrow).

Total market cap stuck in falling wedge structure 

Total market capitalization chart

Total market capitalization chart. Source: TradingView

The total market capitalization is showing a similar structure as Bitcoin. However, it’s more of a falling wedge structure rather than a downwards trending channel (even though the two don’t have many distinguishing characteristics).

In this regard, the purple area is still holding as support while the resistance defines the upper range at $213 billion.

Is the pattern repeating again?

Total market capitalization chart

Total market capitalization chart. Source: TradingView

The recent movements of the cryptocurrency market are showing similarities with the movements that took place throughout October. Through that, an upwards push is quite likely to occur towards the $215-217 billion zones (similar to the movements in October).

If this occurs, market liquidity is taken to the upside, which would make the market bullish overall. If the price is once again rejected at that resistance area, it’s likely that a retest of the purple area is needed. Through that the price is able to get the liquidity from the downside and create bullish divergences, generally marking a bottom formation. 

Would that be bad? 

Not at all! 

Remember that the price came from $3,100 earlier this year and is currently testing at which level support can be found (and a potential higher low). If the price and total market capitalization can do that here, market performance in 2020 could be astounding. The question is, what is needed for bullish perspectives over the short term? 

Bullish scenario 

BTC USD bullish scenario

BTC USD bullish scenario. Source: TradingView

Still, several scenarios can qualify for a bullish scenario. The short term vision is quite strict in which the $7,400 area plays an important role. The green area around $7,400 needs to be maintained as support in this scenario. If that’s the case, continuation towards the $7,800 resistance and the main upper resistance zone at $8,200 is likely to occur.

However, flipping towards a bigger horizon, the price needs to clear that $8,200 area to confirm a trend shift. Why? Well, through that push, the price will be able to break the downtrend and start a potential upward trend. 

Bearish scenario

BTC USD bearish scenario

BTC USD bearish scenario. Source: TradingView

The bearish scenario needs a bit more explanation. Either way, a test of $7,800 could occur through which a hard rejection (preferably a wick and instant dropdown) needs to occur. This is most likely to be followed by a drop below $7,400. 

However, on the other hand, if $7,400 doesn’t provide the required support, this bearish outlook could play out as well.

Would one expect to see the lower area to hold support then? To be honest, it seems unlikely but traders will be watching closely to see further downside in which the $6,800 region becomes interesting. It might even be possible to clear the liquidity below the lows before the price can surge to $8,000. 

Looking forward

it is clear that Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing and could remain low for a couple of weeks. The range is defined by the $6,800 to $8,000 area where Bitcoin price could be hover for a few weeks before it tests the downward trendline. 

What does that mean for price action within the altcoin market? Possibly, altcoins will have more space to make their moves and these range-bound plays are quite attractive for leverage traders. 

Don’t get stressed out by minimal movements of Bitcoin inside a tightening range —  focus on the longer timeframe. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.





Cointelegraph News

Bitcoin Hovers Under $7,550 as Altcoins See Moderate Gains


Saturday, Dec. 7 — most of the top 20 cryptocurrencies are reporting moderate gains on the day by press time, as Bitcoin (BTC) hovers just under the $7,550 mark again.

Market visualization courtesy of Coin360

Market visualization courtesy of Coin360

Bitcoin price is currently up by 2.12% on the day, trading at around $7,537 at press time, according to Coin360. Looking at its weekly chart, the coin is down by about 1.71%.

Bitcoin 7-day price chart

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Earlier today, on-chain analyst and trader, Willy Woo, said on Twitter that he believes that Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum is becoming bullish. He suggests that investors are preparing for halvening front running.

Ether (ETH) is holding onto its position as the largest altcoin by market cap, and currently stands sits at $16.3 billion. The second-largest altcoin, Ripple’s XRP, has a market cap of $9.8 billion at press time.

Coin360 data shows that ETH has seen an increase in value about 0.4% over the last 24 hours. At press time, ETH is trading around $150. Over the past week, the coin has lost about 2.59% of its value. 

Ether 7-day price chart

Ether 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

XRP is up by about 1.55% over the last 24 hours and is currently trading at around $0.225. On the week, the coin is down by about 0.87%.

XRP 7-day price chart

XRP 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Among the top 20 cryptocurrencies, the one reporting the highest gains is Tezos (XTZ), which has grown by almost 10% over the 24 hour period.

At press time, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is $204.8 billion, about 1.92% lower than the value it observed a week ago.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here





Cointelegraph News

Brazil’s Tax Authority Fines Those Who Fail to Declare Bitcoin and Crypto


Brazil’s tax agency, the Department of Federal Revenue (RFB), published a new tax code that specifies fines for taxpayers who fail to declare their Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency transactions.

On Dec. 6, Cointelegraph Brasil reported that the new crypto tax code is a further follow-up to provisions made by the RFB in August that require Brazilian citizens to report all transactions involving cryptocurrencies, in accordance with rules established by Normative Instruction 1,888 introduced in May 2019.

The already implemented tax code applies to individuals, companies and brokerages, and includes all crypto-related activities, including buying and selling, as well as donations, barters, deposits, withdrawals and others.

Those who fail to file a statement on their crypto transactions will be subject to penalties ranging from 500 Brazil reals (BRD) to 1500 BRD, or from $120 to $360. 

In August, Cointelegraph reported that RFB believes that the cryptocurrency market in Brazil has more investors than Brazil’s second-oldest stock exchange, B3, which reportedly had about 800,000 customers at the time. 

RFB almost ran out of money

At the beginning of September, Cointelegraph Brasil reported that the RFB said that it will run out of funds by the end of the month. The tax authority reportedly said at the time that if the Brazilian government does not unlock financial resources, the tax agency would terminate agreements with contractors, stop issuing individual taxpayer registry identification numbers and paying income tax refunds.

Cryptocurrency exchanges also risked being affected, as the requirement that they report all user data and transactions involves the use of an RFB system. If the system shut down, crypto exchanges would simultaneously be legally compelled but unable to comply with data reporting requirements.





Cointelegraph News

Price Analysis 06/12: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, XLM, ADA



Price Analysis 06/12: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, XLM, ADA



Cointelegraph News